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    We have developed phylogenetic criteria to take account of both these factors, and we suggest a way to account for multiple dispersals of common sequence types. If this were the case, Europe could have been populated far more recently—for example, during the Neolithic—by a much more diverse founder population (Barbujani et al. A limitation of the initial analysis (Richards et al.

    We conclude that (i) there has been substantial back-migration into the Near East, (ii) the majority of extant mt DNA lineages entered Europe in several waves during the Upper Palaeolithic, (iii) there was a founder effect or bottleneck associated with the Last Glacial Maximum, 20,000 years ago, from which derives the largest fraction of surviving lineages, and (iv) the immigrant Neolithic component is likely to comprise less than one-quarter of the mt DNA pool of modern Europeans. 1996) subsumes both haplogroup K and a number of other clusters (U1–U6), including several (U1, U2, and U6) found rarely in Europe but more frequently in the Near East and northern Africa (Macaulay et al. In addition, lineages are occasionally seen in Europe that belong to clusters more commonly found elsewhere, such as members of haplogroups M from eastern Eurasia (Ballinger et al. 1996) was that it was based on a very small set of published Near Eastern sequences—42 from the Levant and the Arabian peninsula, mainly from the Bedouin (Di Rienzo and Wilson 1991; Richards and Sykes 1998).

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    It is particularly suited to the study of nonrecombining-marker systems such as mt DNA, which is inherited down the female line and evolves rapidly, so that, provided that sufficient characters are assayed, the maternal genealogy can be well resolved. We have formalized the procedure for founder analysis, investigated the extent of confounding recurrent gene flow between the putative source and derived populations, and developed criteria that take into account the effects of both gene flow and recurrent mutation.

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    The method picks out founder sequence types in potential source populations and dates lineage clusters deriving from them in the settlement zone of interest.

    Here, using mt DNA, we apply the approach to the colonization of Europe, to estimate the proportion of modern lineages whose ancestors arrived during each major phase of settlement. In previous work, it was suggested that much of the extant European mt DNA lineages have their ancestry in Late Glacial expansions within Europe (Richards et al. 1998), with only ~10% dating to the earliest Upper Palaeolithic settlement of the continent (Richards et al.

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