Or: suppose you think that US cities don’t have good mass transit.But if lots of people want better mass transit and are willing to pay for it, this is a great money-making opportunity.Eliezer did some digging, found that existing light boxes were still way less bright than the sun, and jury-rigged a much brighter version.This brighter light box cured Brienne’s depression when the conventional treatment had failed.Consider a freshman biology student reading her textbook who suddenly feels like she’s had a deep insight into the structure of DNA, easily worthy of a Nobel. For all of them to miss a brilliant insight sitting in freshman biology would be the same failure as everybody missing a on the floor of Grand Central, or all of Wall Street missing an easy opportunity to make money off of Google, or every entrepreneur missing a great market opportunity for a Thai restaurant.So without her finding any particular flaw in her theory, she can be pretty sure that it’s wrong – or else already discovered.
The consensus treatment for SAD is “light boxes”, very bright lamps that mimic sunshine and make winter feel more like summer.
In the same way, suppose there’s a city full of rich people who all love Thai food and are willing to pay top dollar for it.
The city has lots of skilled Thai chefs and good access to low-priced Thai ingredients.
Suppose you thought that modern science was broken, with scientists and grantmakers doing a bad job of focusing their discoveries on truly interesting and important things.
But if this were true, then you (or anyone else with a little money) could set up a non-broken science, make many more discoveries than everyone else, get more Nobel Prizes, earn more money from all your patents and inventions, and eventually become so prestigious and rich that everyone else admits you were right and switches to doing science your way.